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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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