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Initially, Donald Trump gave the impression to adopt a firm stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering warnings of "serious consequences" during the summer if Vladimir Putin carried on blocking truce talks, he eventually enacted major sanctions on the Russian two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action substantially hindered Putin's capacity to support his military invasion in Ukraine.

Yet, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace plan for the conflict, which was created by American and Russian officials excluding Ukrainian or EU input, the former president has apparently returned to his pro-Putin approach.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's proposal would essentially favor the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while placing the country's democracy in peril. Although bold declarations that "The nation's sovereignty will be upheld", much of the proposal effectively undermine that same autonomy. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate past, the former president seems to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a basic territorial dispute, like giving Putin a portion of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the leader. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not simply about controlling a damaged area of economically weakened territory in eastern Ukraine. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to weaken it so it no longer functions as an attractive standard for the Russia's population of the democratic government that Putin's growing autocracy denies them.

Land Surrenders

Although maintaining in status the currently split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would require the nation to surrender all of Donetsk province. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with land that its military have been unsuccessful to capture in over a decade of fighting, this surrender would make Ukraine's defenses dangerously weakened.

Donetsk is the site of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the fortified military defenses that represent a key barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, giving Putin a clear way to Kyiv should he eventually opt to restart the war.

Military Restrictions

Furthermore, in a move that would make future fighting easier for Russia, the plan would mandate the nation to reduce the size of its military from their current large number troops to a limit of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's proposal imposes no such restrictions on Russian forces.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's attempts to portray the nation's chosen by the people leadership as radicals, the proposal asserts: "Every extremist doctrine and practices must be rejected and banned." Seemingly to underscore this element, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump places no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Security Commitments

Certainly, the proposal includes the Russian Federation commit not to "attack other states" and to "incorporate in legislation its policy of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". However given that Putin has violated equivalent agreements in the history – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to honor Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow agreed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of seized land in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – how should we have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external defense commitments. While the plan warns of a "decisive coordinated defense action" should the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the particulars vary from unclear to troubling. The initiative would not only deny Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude member states from stationing troops on Ukraine's soil, effectively blocking the security presence, likely commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Putin from restoring his reduced military, restocking, and resuming aggression.

International Concern

A separate side agreement according to sources would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, deliberate, and sustained military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the Western nations." This implies a military response. However different from a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best protection against additional Russian aggression – the success of the supplementary deal would depend on the dedication of alliance members, including the US administration, to respond through arms to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not